Recalling his recent visit to South Sudan, Adama Dieng, the UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, painted a grave picture of the situation, saying he had undertaken the trip because of his growing concern about ethnically-fuelled violence, which is taking place against a breakdown in the political process and a stalled peace agreement.

In the course of the week he was in the country, he had met a variety of stakeholders, including religious and community leaders, including in Yei, which been spared the widespread violence of other areas but has now been identified among the country’s conflict hotspots, with escalating violence against multiple tribe and ethnic groups, reportedly carried out by the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), the SPLA in Opposition, as well as unidentified armed groups and bandits.

“I was dismayed that what I saw confirmed my concern that there is strong risk of violence escalating along ethnic lines with a potential to spiral into genocide; I do not say that lightly,” Mr. Dieg told the Council, noting that the ongoing conflict is also taking an ever-increasing economic toll, both domestically and internationally, causing a drain on funds that could be devoted to much-needed humanitarian assistance.

“South Sudan will see neither growth nor development as long as security accounts for half of Government spending,” he warned.

He went on to say that the early July outbreak of violence is fresh in the minds of people he had met and they noted the potential for more such violence in the coming dry season. Violations of the ceasefire by all sides, widespread impunity and lack of accountability, were clearly evident and the feeling seemed to be that what had once been an undisciplined army formed out of two opposing groups is now an “amorphous and undisciplined force that has splintered into multiple armed groups, criminal gangs and bandits, over which the Government is failing to exercise control.”

What began as a political conflict has transformed into what could become an outright ethnic war UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide

Mr. Dieng said he had sensed a “tremendous mistrust” between civilians and the military and rather than as a source of protection, many ordinary people saw the armed forces as an entity to be feared or joined as one of the country's few employers. One elder had given him a chilling assessment of the ethnic polarization: “in the eyes [of some people] he saw fear, while in the eyes of others, he saw enthusiasm.”

The Special Advisor went on to express deep concern about inflammatory rhetoric, stereotyping and name calling have been accompanied by targeted killings and rape of members of particular ethnic groups, and by violent attacks against individuals or communities on the basis of their perceived political affiliation. The media, including social media, are being used to spread hatred and encourage ethnic polarization.

“I am particularly concerned by the involvement of the youth of this country in this dangerous spread of hatred and hostility, as they are particularly susceptible to divisions within society,” continued Mr. Dieng, underscoring: “So, all the warning signs are there, that what began as a political conflict has transformed into what could become an outright ethnic war.”

Indeed, he said the stalled peace agreement, stagnating economy and spread of arms are the “ingredients for a dangerous escalation of violence – because both motivation and a means” are present in South Sudan.

Here, he emphasized that genocide is a process. “It does not happen overnight. And because it is a process and one that takes time to prepare, it can be prevented. Action can and must be taken now to address some of the factors that could provide fertile ground for genocide.”

While the political leadership in South Sudan has and urgent and primary responsibility to this end, the Security Council could also consider, among other options, publicly calling for the political leadership to immediately condemn and take steps against any actions that could constitute incitement to violence, he said.

Moreover, African leaders must coalesce around a coherent strategy to prevent an escalation of violence. “I saw all the signs that ethnic hatred and targeting of civilians could evolve into genocide if something is not done now to stop it. I urge the Security Council and Member States of the region to take action,” Mr. Dieng concluded.